The road to Indianapolis in the AFC runs through Foxboro, where the Baltimore Ravens will take on the New England Patriots in the 2012 AFC Championship for the right to play in Super Bowl XLVI.
The Ravens held down the Houston Texans at M&T Bank Stadium, 20-13, to grant head coach John Harbaugh his second trip to the conference title game in four years. The Pats, on the other hand, find themselves back at Gillette Stadium after demolishing Tim Tebow and the Denver Broncos, 45-10, behind a record-tying six touchdown passes by Tom Brady.
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, Massachusetts
When: Sunday, January 2nd at 3 p.m. EST
Watch: CBS
Spread: Patriots -7.5 (according to sportsbook.com)
Take the Patriots here. New England has won eight of its nine home games this season if you count Saturday's annihilation of the Broncos, including the last five in a row by an average of 20.4 points per game
Keys to Ravens Win
We all know Baltimore is going to bring the heat on defense, but if the Ravens are really intent to advance to their first Super Bowl since 2001, they'll need their offense to do a much better job of killing clock and controlling tempo.
That's not to say that Joe Flacco needs to be Tom Brady or anything. Rather, the onus will be on Flacco to manage the game and complete the occasional play-action pass, if only to keep the Pats' paltry defense honest and open things up for Ray Rice in the process. More touches for Rice ultimately means fewer possessions for New England's offense and a better shot at keeping the score right where the Ravens would like it.
Key to Patriots Win
Let Tom Brady do his thing. Sounds easy, but against Baltimore's pass rush, nothing's as simple as it seems. Brady had a tough time operating against a similarly structured Pittsburgh Steelers defense earlier this season, throwing for an un-Brady-like 198 yards and two touchdowns in a 25-17 loss at Heinz Field.
Now, the Pats won't have to worry about Terrible Towels or choppy turf at Gillette Stadium, but they will have to concern themselves with keeping Brady clean when under pressure from Haloti Ngata and Terrell Suggs, among others. If New England's offensive line can do to Baltimore's rush what it did to Denver's, then Brady will be in for another fine day and have the Pats on their way to Lucas Oil Stadium.
Prediction: Patriots 28, Ravens 20
Forget about favoring defense over offense.
Not that the old adage isn't still true, but rather that Baltimore's D, while still far better than average, isn't nearly as dominant as it once was.
Another wildly unpredictable year has provided us with a matchup that nobody could have predicted four weeks ago.
After missing the playoffs every season since 2002, the San Francisco 49ers will be hosting the New York Giants with a berth to the Super Bowl on the line.
The 49ers are here because of a defense that allowed the second fewest points in the league and a rejuvenated offense led by QB Alex Smith. Rookie head coach Jim Harbaugh infused a energy that had been missing since they last made the playoffs in 2002.
On the other side, the Giants have crashed the playoff party by winning four straight do-or-die games. The pass rush has become deadly, and QB Eli Manning isn’t turning the ball over. He has two interceptions and zero fumbles in the last month. Tom Coughlin went from the hot seat to in the mix for one of the top coaching performances of the season.
So now an Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees-less NFC Championship is set. So who wins?
The 49ers won 27-20 in Week 10 this season, but the Giants still outgained the 49ers by 90 total yards. The G-Men lost largely because the Ahmad Bradshaw-less running game was only able to churn out 3.2 YPC. Now the Giants are as balanced of a team as any remaining in the postseason.
The biggest matchup will be the Giants' fifth-rated pass offense against a 49ers defense that surrendered the second-fewest points in the league during the regular season.
If Hakeen Nicks continues to produce like he has in his first two playoff games of 2012 (280 yards, four TDs), the pressure will be squarely on the 49ers offense to keep up. They proved capable of doing so against the Saints, but now the 49ers have to deal with the incredibly dangerous defensive line of the Giants.
Jason Pierre-Paul and Osi Umenyiora and the rest of this deep and talented group sacked Rodgers four times, deflected eight of his passes and registered five QB hits. They were the big difference in the game for the second consecutive week.
Smith has to adjust to the pressure and ensure he has the quick dump-off option at all times. Smith only has five interceptions this season, which is one of the main reasons the 49ers have been successful.
I expect the Giants pass rush to pressure Smith early and rattle his confidence to the point of no-return. Once the turnovers start occurring, the Giants' opportunistic offense will cash in on the mistakes.
While the 49ers defense will keep them within striking defense, the Giants are the more balanced team sporting more confidence and more playoff experience and a better quarterback.
Prediction: Giants 24, 49ers 16
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