UFC 136 Preview

Melvin Guillard vs. Joe Lauzon (Lightweight)

Guillard is in the midst of his most impressive career run, and finds himself perhaps a win or two away from finally earning a title shot in the UFC. Lauzon, on the other hand, has been in an up and down pattern in his last several fights, going 4-3 over the last three years but just 2-2 in his last four.

Lauzon wants this fight on the ground. Submissions have always been Guillard's weak point, and Lauzon has been able to roll through a few opponents with ease on the ground in his time in the Octagon. However, Guillard is not Gabe Ruediger or Curt Warburton.

Guillard has improved his takedown defense, and if he avoids a stupid mistake like the one he made against Nate Diaz two years ago, this is far and away his fight to lose.

PREDICTION: Guillard via TKO in the second round

Nam Phan vs. Leonard Garcia (Featherweight)

A rematch of a bout the two had back in December of last year, Phan and Garcia both come into this fight off of losses in their last bouts. Phan dropped a decision to Mike Brown, while Garcia was stopped in a rematch with Chan Sung Jung in March.

There's no reason to believe this fight goes any differently than the first meeting between the two. Phan is better at connecting on his strikes, while Garcia is excellent at giving the illusion of success with his winging, wild punches. What Phan needs to do is make sure it's clear that he's connecting on his punches and doing damage, because Garcia will continue to swing at him and it will score points with judges.

Still, Phan was completely robbed in the first fight, and hopefully for him if it looks like a similar fight to their first one the judges get it correct this time out.

PREDICTION: Phan via unanimous decision

Chael Sonnen vs. Brian Stann (Middleweight)

This middleweight matchup is quite likely to determine the next challenger to the UFC Middleweight Title. Sonnen had his shot last summer and came close to defeating Anderson Silva before getting submitted in the fifth round and then subsequently failing his drug test for the event.

The saga has told ad nauseum, but the end result is Sonnen returning to action for the first time in 14 months against one of the hot fighters in the division in Stann. The former WEC Light Heavyweight Champion has come on strong in the last year with a move to 185 lbs. and a rapidly improving overall game.

This is absolutely a striker vs. grappler fight, as Sonnen will attempt to bully Stann around and grind him out through three rounds, while Stann will try to finish this fight before that happens. The smart money is on Sonnen being able to implement his game because of what he's been able to do in the past and the fact that Stann has had troubles with grinders keeping him on his back in the past. However, Stann has been working on that weakness, and if he can keep himself standing, he may be able to hurt Sonnen on the feet.

Still, Sonnen hasn't been stopped by strikes in years, and his weakness has always been the submission game. Stann is no stranger to that, and locked on a triangle choke against Mike Massenzio in his middleweight debut. This is an extremely intriguing fight, and another where I'm going to go out on a limb with the underdog to keep his streak alive.

PREDICTION: Stann via submission in the third round

Jose Aldo vs. Kenny Florian (Featherweight Championship)

Aldo makes his second appearance in the Octagon after successfully defending his belt against Mark Hominick in April, while Florian gets his third shot at capturing gold in the UFC.

The 25-year-old Aldo has been a dynamo in the striking department, showing off a wide variety of attacks and finding ways to finish fights with his hands and his feet. What hasn't been seen during his time in the WEC and UFC is his ground game, because no one's really been able to test him there. However, he possesses a black belt in Brazilian jiu jitsu, and there's been no reason to believe he can't handle himself on the ground.

Though Florian has come up short in some of his biggest fights, he's one of the most consistent finishers in the UFC. Florian has ten wins inside the Octagon, and only two of those fights have gone the distance.

What's fascinating about Florian's success in the sport is that his striking game is often overlooked. Because he's become so adept with his submission game, many forget his origins in Muay Thai. Where he's come up short has been his wrestling game, and he's had trouble at times dealing with fighters that were able to out-grapple him.

As crazy as it might sound, Florian is easily the most dangerous fighter Aldo has faced to date. Florian's got inches of height and reach on Aldo, his striking game is perhaps not quite as dangerous but easily effective enough to give him troubles, and his submission game is superb.

This is a desperation fight for Florian. A loss here may just take him out of title contention for the rest of his career, but a win gives him new life atop his latest division. For as fantastic as Aldo has been thus far, Florian's got the experience edge and has the physical tools to take this fight. I'm going out on a limb with this one, but I think Florian pulls off the upset on Saturday night.

PREDICTION: Florian via submission in the third round

Frankie Edgar vs. Gray Maynard (Lightweight Championship)

Gray Maynard feels slighted coming into this third fight with Edgar. He holds the only victory over Edgar, and feels he should have been given the decision in their rematch at UFC 125. It's hard to blame him for that feeling, as he nearly finished Edgar in the first round of that fight and arguably should have gotten a 10-7 mark from the judges. One more round won with a 10-7 would have given him the win.

However, Edgar had his own argument for the fight with one of the greatest comebacks seen in the Octagon. He took one of the worst beatings given in the UFC without a finish in that first round; it was everything Maynard could do to him played out in that five minute round, and Edgar survived and thrived the rest of the way.

Edgar comes into this third matchup the favorite, despite the fact that he has yet to beat Maynard. But it's because he survived through such a hellacious beating and still came back strong that it's hard to see what Maynard could possibly do to put him away this time.

The Champ has shown a great ability to adapt and grow from fight to fight. After slightly edging out a decision over B.J. Penn to capture the belt, he came back in the immediate rematch and left no question that he was the better man that night. Even in the rematch with Maynard, Edgar showed off a massively improved wrestling game from when the two met the first time.

Maynard left everything in the cage on January 1 and wasn't able to finish the job. Unlike Edgar, Maynard's game hasn't really evolved at the same rate. He's still a fantastic wrestler and he hits really hard, but Edgar's ground game continues to improve, and his footwork and boxing technique is among the best in the division.

I think there's going to be a lot of this fight that resembles what we saw from these two in January, but I don't think it will be the first round that's repeated. Edgar knows what Maynard is bringing in this fight, and I think he'll be more ready for it this time around.

PREDICTION: Edgar via unanimous decision