UFC 135 Preview

Heavyweights
Ben Rothwell (31-7, 1-1 UFC) vs. Mark Hunt (6-7, 1-1 UFC)

The Matchup: Some heavyweight red meat is thrown to the fans in this one, as two reliable sluggers collide. Anybody who watched the International Fight League is familiar with Rothwell, who has good hands for a big man, spotty standup defense and likes to get into brawls. Hunt, one of the best combinations of striking and chin that MMA has ever known, was a legend in the salad days of Pride Fighting Championships and K-1. His transition to MMA has yielded mixed results, as his ground game is eminently suspect, but chin for chin and strike for strike, there have been few in the history of MMA that would ever want to test themselves against the fearsome New Zealander.

There are no matchmaking accidents in the UFC, and this is a solid candidate for “Fight of the Night” based on the styles of both men. Hunt loves to gauge the range, lure opponents into thinking they can hit him and then unload massive bombs that can end matters instantly. Rothwell could probably win this one by playing it smart and hitting a clinch-takedown combination, but he knows precisely why this match has been made, and playing it safe has never been his style. Rothwell will want to test himself against Hunt’s big punches.

The Pick: Hunt wins by second-round knockout in an epic brawl that sees both men hurt at times. Ultimately, Hunt’s power seals the deal.

Lightweights
Nate Diaz (13-7, 8-5 UFC) vs. Takanori Gomi (32-7, 1 NC, 1-2 UFC)

The Matchup: Diaz’s standup style is a masterpiece of range and relentless frustration for opponents. He is consistently just a little too far away to get hit cleanly and tosses punches out with varying intensity to lull his opponent before he drops a solid combination. The development of his standup mirrors that of his brother, former Strikeforce welterweight champion Nick Diaz, and, in recent bouts, it has become an increasingly effective part of his game. His chin and conditioning are also top-notch.

Diaz is great at recovering when hurt, and nobody wants to follow him to the ground should they land a big one. Gomi’s better days are probably behind him; at his peak, he was a relentless slugger on the feet with a go-for-broke style and wicked ground-and-pound. He tended to fight with a bullying style but often could not adapt when skilled, unflappable opponents refused to break under the brunt of his initial assault. That is exactly the kind of fighter Diaz is and precisely why he gives more physically gifted opponents fits.

Diaz plays as much a mental game on opponents as he does extracting a physical toll. He likes to show them early on that he is the boss, and Gomi’s willingness to come forward and trade is a real wild card here. It is doubtful he can stand around and look to outpoint the bigger and technically sharper Diaz on the feet.

On the mat, if it goes there, Diaz’s defensive jiu-jitsu is comparable to any lightweight currently in the UFC. He simply stifles people. Diaz’s biggest challenge is that his lack of wrestling and takedown defense, coupled with being somewhere between 155 and 170 pounds in natural size, leaves him in a tough spot in terms of campaigning in either division. In this fight, he should be able to force Gomi into costly exchanges on the feet, all while wearing him down, whether it is in clinches, striking, on the ground or just yelling obscenities during the match.

The Pick: Diaz gets further inside Gomi’s head as the bout transpires, ultimately submitting him in the third round after dropping him with strikes.

Heavyweights
Travis Browne (11-0-1, 2-0-1 UFC) vs. Rob Broughton (15-5-1, 1-0 UFC)

The Matchup: This is a “one-sipper” fight -- a match where it takes one sip of coffee and the time to swallow it while watching film of a fighter to make a prediction. Broughton has poor wrestling, and he is not particularly sharp on the feet. In short, he is a limited plugger, so one can see what the excitement is about, at least for Browne’s manager.

For his part, the 6-foot-7, 250-pound Browne may not be Jerome LeBanner on the feet, but he is coming along nicely enough. You cannot teach that kind of size, and “Hapa” drilled Stefan Struve with a massive shot in his last outing that resulted in the kind of epic, larger-than-life knockout that only heavyweights can supply. Browne is also fairly tough, surviving a lengthy clinch-and-smash bout against reliable veteran Cheick Kongo. In the UFC’s heavyweight division, Browne finds himself in a good position as an unbeaten fighter. He can develop and get experience without trying to leap too many rungs up the ladder.

The Pick: This is an easy fight for Brown, as he will unload on Broughton at will, and the only way he gets taken down is if the Brit sneaks a taser into the cage. This should be equal parts brutal and bloody; Brown by first-round knockout.

Welterweights
Matt Hughes (45-8, 18-6 UFC) vs. Josh Koscheck (15-5, 13-5 UFC)

The Matchup: Koscheck looks to return from his humbling decision defeat to Georges St. Pierre at UFC 124, where the champion dominated over five one-sided rounds. Equipped with top-notch wrestling and takedowns, Koscheck remains one of the game’s elite welterweights. Former champion Hughes gets a tough break here; originally slated to face the now-injured Diego Sanchez, he draws a much more difficult style matchup in Koscheck.

Hughes does not figure to be able to take down Koscheck easily, if at all, but his standup in recent bouts has shown more commitment compared to the days of his title reign, when he mostly grounded-and-pounded opponents. However, the talent pool has expanded considerably since Hughes’ reign, and middling performances in recent outings for him are indicative of a once-great fighter well past his best days. Hughes’ best shot is getting into a clinch and hoping to create a scramble or takedown opening and work from there. Koscheck’s ability to land numbing strikes on the feet is often overlooked due to his wrestling credentials, but, style-wise, this bout could look a lot like his one-round blowout of Frank Trigg.

Koscheck’s right hand and sprawl will come into the fray early. Hughes will definitely be a sentimental favorite here for fans, but it is hard to see a way in which he could win. He does not have the standup to trouble his opponent too much, and Koscheck is going to be too athletic to take down and keep down.

The Pick: It is Koscheck’s fight to lose, and he will take a round to gauge the distance before turning up the pressure and putting Hughes on his back in the second, following up with a heavy ground-and-pound to win by knockout.

UFC Light Heavyweight Championship
Jon Jones (13-1, 7-1 UFC) vs. Quinton “Rampage” Jackson (32-8, 7-2 UFC)

The Matchup: In his first defense, Jones faces a fighter who can truly hurt him with a single punch. The problem will be how Jackson negotiates the obvious problem at hand, namely Jones’ reach, far more diverse striking arsenal and the champion’s ability to hit takedowns in seemingly endless variation and type.

One big shot from Jackson, however, can neutralize all the hype that Jones has generated, and it is an important issue, because “Bones” has yet to really be tested in that department. In fact, he has barely spent a moment in a bad position in his UFC career, physically dominating foes while doing what he wants when he wants.

Jones has plenty of physical assets that make him a problem, but the biggest obstacle for opponents is his length. He employs it perfectly, whether standing, where he flicks out kicks and punches from seemingly across the cage, or on the ground, where the sheer distance encompassed by his limbs and torso skews everything the other guy wants to do. It provides openings for Jones to bang foes while he is too far away to attack.

Jackson’s approach to the mental game in this fight has already faltered, with accusations about “spies” in his camp working for Jones -- claims the champion has politely but firmly dismissed. Jackson’s outstanding wrestling is largely used to defend shots so he can headhunt, and Rampage still has not fixed his iffy defense against leg kicks, nor used takedown attempts to add another variable to his offense, which would open up strikes. In a way, he has become more one-dimensional than during his Pride Fighting Championships days. Poor game planning cost him against Rashad Evans, who simply used better tactics to get the decision at UFC 114.

At the end of the day, Jackson has the one-shot power and durability to beat Jones, provided all the dominoes line up correctly. That is assuming Jones does not have a host of options on which to feast, ranging from hassling Rampage with kicks and sticking takedowns to outboxing him on the feet.

What it boils down to is this: Jones is able to do things nobody else can. He will frustrate and pick apart Rampage while Jackson heaves the occasional counter, eating punches three-to-one and eventually getting weary of fighting through a thicket of counters. Jones is also going to be able to take down Rampage easier than many think; his ability to execute Greco-Roman and lower-leg shots is unreal, and Rampage will be victimized by the latter, since it is doubtful Jones wants to tie up, especially early.

The Pick: Ultimately, Jackson comes apart slowly but surely, with Jones dominating every phase of the game, even as he takes a couple of shots. He will punish the durable Jackson, finishing with a submission from the top in the fourth round.